The cryptocurrency market is facing a critical convergence of macroeconomic pressure and technical constraints this Saturday, January 10, 2026. As traders navigate a volatile weekend, the industry braces for the settlement of over $2.2 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options, an event that threatens to trigger a potential crypto market crash today if key support levels fail to hold. This massive derivatives expiry coincides with a tense standoff awaiting the U.S. Supreme Court's landmark ruling on the legality of President Trump's controversial tariffs, creating a perfect storm of uncertainty.

Bitcoin Options Expiry 2026: The 'Max Pain' Scenario

Data from leading derivatives exchange Deribit reveals that approximately $1.89 billion in Bitcoin options and $396 million in Ethereum options are set to settle. The market is currently pinned near the "Max Pain" price—the level at which the greatest number of options expire worthless, causing maximum financial loss to option buyers and maximum profit to the option sellers (often market makers).

For Bitcoin, this critical gravity point sits firmly at $90,000. Market makers have been actively hedging their positions, effectively suppressing volatility and pinning the Bitcoin price support $90k. However, once these contracts settle, the suppression lifts, leaving the asset vulnerable to a sharp directional move. With the Put/Call ratio for Bitcoin hovering around 1.05, the sentiment is decidedly cautious, reflecting a market hedging against further downside risk rather than betting on a breakout.

Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Crypto Impact

Beyond the technical mechanics of options expiry, the market is gripped by macro-political anxiety. The Supreme Court tariff ruling crypto investors are watching involves a challenge to the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on global imports. At stake is over $133.5 billion in assessed duties that could be subject to refunds if the court rules against the administration.

The uncertainty has paralyzed risk assets. A ruling striking down the tariffs could theoretically ease inflation expectations and boost risk appetite. However, the delay in the decision has fostered a climate of fear. "The market hates uncertainty more than bad news," notes senior market analyst Sarah Jenkins. "Until we know if these trade barriers stand, institutional capital is sitting on the sidelines, treating Bitcoin as a high-beta proxy for global trade stability."

Institutional Crypto Outflows Hit $1.1 Billion

Adding to the bearish sentiment is a sharp reversal in fund flows. After a strong start to the year, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed a dramatic U-turn. In the last 72 hours alone, institutional crypto outflows have surpassed $1.1 billion, nearly wiping out the gains recorded in the first week of January 2026. Major players like BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC have seen heavy redemptions as asset managers de-risk ahead of the Supreme Court's decision.

This exodus has pushed the crypto fear and greed index into "Extreme Fear" territory. The sudden shift from accumulation to distribution suggests that large-scale investors are preparing for a potential liquidity crunch or a "sell-the-news" event, regardless of the legal outcome in Washington.

Ethereum Price Forecast January 2026

While Bitcoin struggles to defend $90,000, Ethereum faces its own challenges. Trading near $3,100—its own Max Pain level—Ether has shown relative weakness against Bitcoin. The Ethereum price forecast January 2026 remains tenuous; if the $3,100 support crumbles post-expiry, analysts warn of a slide toward the $2,850 region.

However, Ethereum's options market shows a slightly more bullish Put/Call ratio of 0.87, indicating that some traders are positioning for a relief rally. If the Supreme Court ruling provides clarity and the dollar weakens, Ethereum could lead a swift recovery, targeting the $3,300 resistance zone later this month.

What to Watch Next

As the weekend unfolds, all eyes remain on the $90,000 level for Bitcoin. A decisive break below could open the floodgates to $85,000, while a successful defense might set the stage for a relief bounce once the options overhang is cleared. For now, caution is the only certainty in a market caught between technical max pain and judicial suspense.